A Super Mega Bowl guide
Craps is the loudest game in the casino and one of the most misunderstood. It also hides one of the best bets on the floor right next to some of the worst. The difference between them is pure probability, and understanding it is the difference between losing slowly and losing fast.
A round of craps starts with a come-out roll of two dice. If it lands on 7 or 11, a Pass Line bet wins immediately. If it lands on 2, 3, or 12, the Pass Line loses. Any other total (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10) becomes the point. From there the shooter keeps rolling until either the point comes up again, which wins, or a 7 appears first, which loses and ends the turn. That losing 7 is the famous "seven out."
Everything in craps flows from one fact about two dice: 7 is the most common total. There are six ways to roll a 7 out of 36 combinations, more than any other number, which is why it appears about once every six rolls. A 4 or a 10 can be made only three ways each, and a 2 or a 12 only one way.
This single fact cuts both directions. On the come-out roll, the easy 7 helps you, because it is an instant win. Once a point is set, the same easy 7 becomes the threat, because it now ends your roll with a loss and it is more likely than repeating most points. The game is built on the gap between how often 7 appears and how often your point does. You can watch that distribution build with any pair of dice on the dice roller.
The Pass Line is one of the fairest bets in the building. Its house edge is about 1.41 percent, far lower than roulette. The Don't Pass bet, which wagers with the house against the shooter, is even a touch lower at about 1.36 percent.
Better still is the Free Odds bet. After a point is established, you can back your Pass Line bet with an additional wager that pays at the true mathematical odds, with a house edge of exactly zero. It is the only bet in the casino with no edge at all. You cannot make it on its own, since it rides on a Pass Line bet that does carry the small edge, but taking maximum odds drags your overall edge down toward a fraction of a percent.
| Bet | House edge |
|---|---|
| Free Odds (behind the line) | 0% |
| Don't Pass / Don't Come | about 1.36% |
| Pass Line / Come | about 1.41% |
| Place 6 or 8 | about 1.52% |
| Field | about 2.78% to 5.56% |
| Big 6 or Big 8 | about 9.09% |
| Hardways | about 9% to 11% |
| Any 7 (proposition) | about 16.67% |
The center of the table is where the casino makes its money. The flashy proposition bets there look exciting and pay big, but their edges are brutal. Any 7 gives back about 16.67 percent, roughly twelve times the edge on the Pass Line. The stickperson calls those bets constantly, because every dollar wagered there is worth far less than a dollar bet on the line. A bet that pays 4 to 1 when the true odds are 5 to 1 is not generous. It is expensive.
Even the best craps bet still has a small edge, and the Free Odds bet only exists on top of one. That means every wager you make, over enough rolls, has a negative expected value. Any single turn with the dice can be a big win, which is what makes craps thrilling and what convinces players it is beatable.
But the dice have no memory, and the law of large numbers guarantees that as the number of rolls climbs, your average result converges toward the house edge on the bets you are making. A hot streak is real and can last an hour. A thousand rolls is not a streak, it is a sample, and a large sample always drifts toward the true odds. This is why the house wins if it keeps you playing. The longer the session, the more surely the small edge collects.
Craps players are famously superstitious, and much of it is the gambler's fallacy in action. A number that has not hit is not "due." The dice do not know the point, do not track the last ten rolls, and start every roll fresh at the same odds. Betting a number because it is overdue is betting on a pattern that does not exist.
Craps rewards knowing the math more than almost any casino game. The Pass Line with Free Odds is close to a fair fight, while the proposition bets are a fast way to lose. Either way, the edge never flips in your favor, so over enough rolls the result is the same. The dice are fair. The table is still built to win.